巴菲特:开始动用私人资金买股票
[img]http://cn.yimg.com/sp/sarticle/dingyue/20081020142303_0.jpg[/img][font=仿宋_GB2312][size=4][color=darkslategray] 股神巴菲特在《纽约时报》发表贵宾评论(guest commentary)文章宣布,将动用私人资金购买美国股票。他表示,他奉行的是一个很简单的信条:即他人贪婪时他恐惧,他人恐惧时他贪婪。[/color][/size][/font]
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[font=仿宋_GB2312][size=4][color=darkslategray] 巴菲特,这位被尊称为奥马哈圣哲的人,一个将濒临破产的纺织公司伯克希尔-哈撒韦变为一家拥有1990亿美元资产的多元化投资公司的奇人,总是能在最适当的时机收购到最正确的公司。他也承认,美国经济层面的消息都是坏消息,如金融市场一团糟,失业率上升,商业活动萎靡。但他认为,在市场恢复信心或经济复苏前,股市会逆市上涨而且可能是大涨,如果你等到知更鸟叫时,一切都晚了。[/color][/size][/font]
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[font=仿宋_GB2312][size=4][color=darkslategray] 以下是巴菲特在《纽约时报》所发文章的全文:[/color][/size][/font]
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[font=仿宋_GB2312][size=4][color=darkslategray] 无论是在美国还是在世界其他地方,金融市场都陷入了混乱。金融危机已经渗透到总体经济中,现在这种渗透变为井喷式爆发。近期,失业率还将上升,商业活动将停滞不前,头条新闻继续是令人害怕的消息。[/color][/size][/font]
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[font=仿宋_GB2312][size=4][color=darkslategray] 因此...我开始购买美国股票。我动用的是自己的私人账户,之前该账户除了美国政府的债券外没有任何资产。(之所以没有动用伯克希尔-哈撒韦的资产,是因为该公司的资产将全部投入到慈善事业中。)如果美国证券的价格继续保持吸引力,那么我的非伯克希尔净资产不久将全部是美国证券。[/color][/size][/font]
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[font=仿宋_GB2312][size=4][color=darkslategray] 为什么?[/color][/size][/font]
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[font=仿宋_GB2312][size=4][color=darkslategray] 因为我奉行一条简单的信条:即他人贪婪时我恐惧,他人恐惧时我贪婪。(Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful) 当然,在多数情况下恐惧会蔓延,即使是经验丰富的投资者也无法抗拒这种恐惧感。不过有点是肯定的,投资者应对竞争地位弱的、但杠杆过度的实体或企业保持警惕。但对于美国很多竞争力强的公司,没有必要担心他们的长期前景。这些公司的利润也会时好时坏,但多数大公司在5、10、20年后都将创下新的利润记录。[/color][/size][/font]
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[font=仿宋_GB2312][size=4][color=darkslategray] 我要澄清一点:我无法预计股市的短期变动,对于股票1个月或1年内的涨跌情况我不敢妄言。然而有个情况很可能会出现,在市场恢复信心或经济复苏前,股市会上涨而且可能是大涨。因此,如果你等到知更鸟叫时,反弹时机已经错过了。[/color][/size][/font]
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[font=仿宋_GB2312][size=4][color=darkslategray] 先学点历史知识:大萧条时期,1932年7月8日道-琼斯指数跌至历史最低点的41点,直到弗兰克林-罗斯福在1933年3月上任前,经济状况依然持续恶化。不过当时股市却涨了30%。再回到第二次世界大战的初期,美军在欧洲和太平洋战场的情况很糟,1942年4月股市再次跌至谷底,这时离盟军扭转战局还很远。再比如,上世纪80年代初,通货膨胀加剧、经济急速下滑,但却是购买股票的最佳时机。总之,坏消息是投资者最好的朋友,你能以很低的代价赌美国的未来。[/color][/size][/font]
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[font=仿宋_GB2312][size=4][color=darkslategray] 长期来看,股市将会好转。在20世纪美国经历2次世界大战和其他大规模的战争,经历过衰退、多次的衰退和金融危机;石油危机;流行疾病;和总统因丑闻下台等事件。但道指却从66点涨到了11497点。[/color][/size][/font]
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[font=仿宋_GB2312][size=4][color=darkslategray] 也许你会认为,对一个投资者来说在一个出现如此多机会的世纪里还亏钱是不可能的。但有些投资者确实亏了。这些倒霉蛋总是在感觉不错时买入股票,但在市场令他们恐惧时卖出。[/color][/size][/font]
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[font=仿宋_GB2312][size=4][color=darkslategray] 今天拥有现金或现金等价物的人可能感觉不错。但他们错了。他们选择了一项可怕的长期资产,一种实际上没有付出任何代价但肯定会贬值的资产。事实上,美国政府实施的救市政策可能会导致通货膨胀,从而加速现金资产的贬值。[/color][/size][/font]
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[font=仿宋_GB2312][size=4][color=darkslategray] 未来10年证券的价值肯定会高于现金,而且是高出很多。那些坚持持有现金瞄准其他其他投资领域的投资者,正在等待好消息,但他们忘了Wayne Gretzky(冰球明星)的一句忠告:我总是滑向冰球运动的方向,而不是等冰球滑走再追。[/color][/size][/font]
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[font=仿宋_GB2312][size=4][color=darkslategray] 我不喜欢对股市进行猜测,我再次强调我对股市的短期行情没有任何了解。尽管如此,我还是推崇在空荡荡的银行大厦开餐馆的人,并建议:用你的嘴巴告诉自己钱在哪?现在我的钱和我的嘴巴都告诉我是股票。[/color][/size][/font]
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Buy American. I Am.
[font=Trebuchet MS][size=3][color=darkslategray] THE financial world is a mess, both in the United States and abroad. Its problems, moreover, have been leaking into the general economy, and the leaks are now turning into a gusher. In the near term, unemployment will rise, business activity will falter and headlines will continue to be scary.[/color][/size][/font][font=Trebuchet MS][size=3][color=#2f4f4f][/color][/size][/font]
[font=Trebuchet MS][size=3][color=darkslategray] So ... I’ve been buying American stocks. This is my personal account I’m talking about, in which I previously owned nothing but United States government bonds. (This description leaves aside my Berkshire Hathaway holdings, which are all committed to philanthropy.) If prices keep looking attractive, my non-Berkshire net worth will soon be 100 percent in United States equities.[/color][/size][/font]
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[font=Trebuchet MS][size=3][color=darkslategray]Why?[/color][/size][/font]
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[font=Trebuchet MS][size=3][color=darkslategray] A simple rule dictates my buying: Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful. And most certainly, fear is now widespread, gripping even seasoned investors. To be sure, investors are right to be wary of highly leveraged entities or businesses in weak competitive positions. But fears regarding the long-term prosperity of the nation’s many sound companies make no sense. These businesses will indeed suffer earnings hiccups, as they always have. But most major companies will be setting new profit records 5, 10 and 20 years from now.[/color][/size][/font]
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[font=Trebuchet MS][size=3][color=darkslategray] Let me be clear on one point: I can’t predict the short-term movements of the stock market. I haven’t the faintest idea as to whether stocks will be higher or lower a month — or a year — from now. What is likely, however, is that the market will move higher, perhaps substantially so, well before either sentiment or the economy turns up. So if you wait for the robins, spring will be over.[/color][/size][/font]
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[font=Trebuchet MS][size=3][color=darkslategray] A little history here: During the Depression, the Dow hit its low, 41, on July 8, 1932. Economic conditions, though, kept deteriorating until Franklin D. Roosevelt took office in March 1933. By that time, the market had already advanced 30 percent. Or think back to the early days of World War II, when things were going badly for the United States in Europe and the Pacific. The market hit bottom in April 1942, well before Allied fortunes turned. Again, in the early 1980s, the time to buy stocks was when inflation raged and the economy was in the tank. In short, bad news is an investor’s best friend. It lets you buy a slice of America’s future at a marked-down price.[/color][/size][/font]
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[font=Trebuchet MS][size=3][color=darkslategray] Over the long term, the stock market news will be good. In the 20th century, the United States endured two world wars and other traumatic and expensive military conflicts; the Depression; a dozen or so recessions and financial panics; oil shocks; a flu epidemic; and the resignation of a disgraced president. Yet the Dow rose from 66 to 11,497. [/color][/size][/font]
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[font=Trebuchet MS][size=3][color=darkslategray] You might think it would have been impossible for an investor to lose money during a century marked by such an extraordinary gain. But some investors did. The hapless ones bought stocks only when they felt comfort in doing so and then proceeded to sell when the headlines made them queasy.[/color][/size][/font]
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[font=Trebuchet MS][size=3][color=darkslategray] Today people who hold cash equivalents feel comfortable. They shouldn’t. They have opted for a terrible long-term asset, one that pays virtually nothing and is certain to depreciate in value. Indeed, the policies that government will follow in its efforts to alleviate the current crisis will probably prove inflationary and therefore accelerate declines in the real value of cash accounts. [/color][/size][/font]
[font=Trebuchet MS][size=3][color=darkslategray] Equities will almost certainly outperform cash over the next decade, probably by a substantial degree. Those investors who cling now to cash are betting they can efficiently time their move away from it later. In waiting for the comfort of good news, they are ignoring Wayne Gretzky’s advice: “I skate to where the puck is going to be, not to where it has been.”[/color][/size][/font]
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[font=Trebuchet MS][size=3][color=darkslategray] I don’t like to opine on the stock market, and again I emphasize that I have no idea what the market will do in the short term. Nevertheless, I’ll follow the lead of a restaurant that opened in an empty bank building and then advertised: “Put your mouth where your money was.” Today my money and my mouth both say equities. [/color][/size][/font]
[font=Trebuchet MS][size=3][color=#2f4f4f] Warren E. Buffett is the chief executive of Berkshire Hathaway, a diversified holding company.[/color][/size][/font]
[font=Trebuchet MS][size=3][color=darkslategray][/color][/size][/font] 老头嘴里没啥真话... 一把年纪了，还折腾啥，老老实实卖午饭吧 其实，抄底也是一种很正确的选择 美国股市会复苏的。
雷曼兄弟股价跌倒0.15美元的时候就想买了，苦于还没SSN号 其实也没什么错 看胆识
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